- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG) -

 

Meeting Notes

 

 

Location:                    National Interagency Coordination Center, Boise, Idaho

Meeting Dates:          October 26-28, 2004

 

Members Present:

  • Gerry Day – NWCC – GACC Managers Representative
  • Kim Christensen – NICC Manager – NICC Liaison
  • Tom Wordell – JFSP – PS/Fire Analysts Representative
  • Deb Bowen – EGBCC –  (for Mike Lococo) Intelligence Coordinators Representative
  • Chip Collins – Grand Teton NP – Field Level Fire Managers Representative
  • Bill Plough – CDF – State/NASF Representative
  • Rick Ochoa – NICC – GACC Meteorologists Representative
  • Rusty Billingsley – NWS – National Weather Service Representative
  • Alice Forbes – NIFC – NMAC Liaison (Advisor)
  • Neal Hitchcock – NIFC (for Alice Forbes) – NMAC Liaison (Advisor)

 

Guests: 

  • Paul Schlobohm
  • Michael Bevins
  • Jay Ellington (via phone)
  • Chuck Maxwell (via phone)

 

Notetaker:  Lani Williams

 

Meeting Agenda Topics:

 

  1.      Introductions & Meeting Logistics –Tom

  2.      Project funding status – Tom

a)      FY-2004 report

b)      FY-2005 proposal process – Tom/Kim

  3.      Lessons Learned - 2004 (season review along with unresolved and emerging issues) including a review of November Intell/Met meeting agenda and expected results

           a)     Intell (30 minutes) – Deb

           b)    Met (30 minutes) – Rick

           c)     NWS (30 minutes) – Rusty

  4.      Intelligence Coordinators Report – Deb

            a)   Intelligence Training update

b)   SIT/209

c)   Ownership vs. Protection Reporting update – Kim

  5.      Web Task Group Charter – Gerry/Jay Ellington

·        Conference call with Jay Ellington

6.           NPSG Framework – Gerry

a)     Discussion of where we are and where we need to go

         b)    User Assessment – status/need

c)       Include action items, assignments, completion dates and funding

d)    National Park Service Fire Ecology Program Strategic Plan – Chip

  7.      Fire Environment Working Team Update – Gerry/Paul Schlobohm

  8.      Fire Weather Center Concept Update – Rusty (and other FWC Members)

  9.      Standardized Products for GACCs – Rick

10.      NPS Fire Ecology Program – Chip

11.      Research – How do we get “Plugged in” – Tom/Gerry

a)      Opportunities for getting topic areas in front of research

b)      FS logic model update

c)      How to integrate into project proposal/funding process

d)      Other

12.      AMS Meeting – Fall 2005 (see notes from last meeting) – Rick

           a)     Special section on Predictive Services

           b)    Who should represent NPSG?

           c)    Update on how and what NPSG representative should discuss

13.      Predictive Services Conference/Symposium- (see notes from last meeting) – Gerry                    

14.      Validation & Verification (Conference call with Chuck Maxwell)                                                

           a)     Adherence to consensus decision on 2004 verification process – Chuck Maxwell

           b)    Update on what will be presented at Nov. Intel/Met meeting – Tom/Chuck

15.      Integrating Decision Support into Predictive Services – Gerry

a)     Update on Don McGregor’s visit to NWCC during summer of 2004 (30 min)

b)    Resource Allocation Topic (30 min) – Neal Hitchock and Michael Bevins

16.      User Feedback and Bin Items – All

           a)     AWIPS Equipment – Heath

           b)    ROMAN – Ed Delgado

           c)     Red Flag Fuels/Large Fire Potential

           d)    National Seasonal Assessment Workshop Funding

           e)     Where to take “Spot Weather Forecast Policy – Rusty

           f)     Agenda for January Meeting

           g)     Pending Actions

           h)     Prep for Predictive Services Portland Meeting

17.      Next Meeting; January 18-20 (California) – Gerry/Tom

·        Logistics and Topics

 

 

Exhibits

 

A.                 Pending Action Items Tracking Table                                                      5 pgs

B.                 Completed Action Items Tracking Table                                                             6 pgs

C.                 NPSG Funding and Project Status                                                                      2 pgs

D.                 NPSG Framework and Goals-Final Draft                                                         14 pgs

E.                  Lessons Learned – 2004 Meteorologists                                                             1 pgs

F.                  Lessons Learned – 2004 National Weather Service                                            2 pgs

G.                 Fire Environment Working Team (FENWT)                                                        2 pgs

H.                 Fire Weather Center Proposal                                                                            2 pgs

I.                    National Park Service Fire Ecology Program Strategic Plan: 2004-2008            28 pgs

J.                   Standard Products for Predictive Services                                                           3 pgs

K.                Charles Maxwell Email                                                                          1 pgs

L.         Gridded FX-Net Project Proposal                                                                      1 pgs

 

 

Tuesday – October 26, 2004

 

Project Funding Status – Tom:  (Exhibit C)

 

ROMAN

·        Approved as an application in the BLM IT Portfolio in FY-06. 

·        NPSG has provided funding that should carry the program through December 2004.

Decision:  Arrange a conference call this week with Ed Delgado for update of:

·        Plan for 2005

·        Contingency

·        Options/Plans

 

Gridded-FX Net

·     Hardware purchased with yearend money.

 

Red Flag Fuels Criteria

·     Not funded

·     Submitted to JFSP

·     Denied as being too operational

 

Predictive Services Product Verification Study

·     Not funded

 

Resource Utilization Study

·     Needed for Cheetah default values

·     Data is complete through July 2003

Decision:  Need to arrange for follow up and completion of data input into spreadsheet that Tom and Don Carlton developed.  Kim was unaware the resource utilization data had not been updated and agreed to appoint someone to complete the data input through 2004.

 

User Assessment Plan

·     Unable to find someone with current contract to task prior to the end of FY-04

           Decision:  Need to follow up with user assessment in 2005.

 

National Seasonal Assessment Workshop

·     Funded by NPSG Climas and NOAA for $15,000 in 2004

·     Climas and NOAA may not be providing funding for 2005

 

Decision:  Summary of FY-05 funding will be focused on three areas:  National Seasonal Assessment Workshops, User Assessment and Standardized Products.

 

Funding Proposal Process – Rick/Kim:

 

A proposal process has not been worked out yet.  Although funding is limited a process is still needed so that proposals can be prioritized. 

 

Intelligence Coordinators Report – Deb

·     Intelligence Training Update – There will be three levels of Intell Dispatchers.  Qualifications will be managed by the Dispatch Training Steering Committee with oversight from the Intell Working Group.

·     SIT/209 – The SIT/209 Committee is proposing developing an official Change Board.  The Committee also needs to be tied in with the Fire Occurrence Working Group.                                                                 

·     Ownership/Protection Reporting Update – To be covered later.

 

Lessons Learned – 2004 Meteorologists – Rick:  (Exhibit E)

 

With the exception of Alaska, half of the normal acres were burned in 2004.  A high remained over the Four Corners Region during much of the season.  Periods of dry lightning were followed by periods of precipitation.

 

Predictive Services Agreements:

·     Validation of ERC – FM “G” and update of products was not done by all of the GACC’s.

·     Need to find a way to insure accountability in that agreements and commitments are acted upon

BlueSky/RAINS

·     USFS is considering studying a request by EPA to implement BlueSky/RAINS in the West.

 

Lessons Learned – 2004 National Weather Service – Rusty:  (Exhibit F)

 

·     Below average number of IMET Dispatches

·     NWS cosigned FENWT Charter (first NWCG Charter for the NWS)

·     Verification of NFDRS sites – NWS needs a list of RAWS sites that meet NFDRS Standards

·     IMET Role Expansion Team – Studying the feasibility and requirements to expand IMET support to all-hazards.

·     Spot Forecasts requests continue to increase – Requesting review of policies to assist in defining a formal process.

 

Web Task Group Charter – Jay Ellington:

 

The Charter was modeled after other NWCG Charters.  The group is comprised of the former Task Force Members:

           Jay Ellington, SWC, Chair

           Ed Delgado, EBC

           Steve Marion, EAC

           Tom Rolinski, OSC

           Kathy Wiegard, WBC

           Dan Ervin, NIFC, Ad Hoc Member

 

A presentation will be made at the Predictive Services/Intelligence Meeting next week.  The Host Server is scheduled to be available in January.  The National Webpage should be posted early 2005. GACCs will be required to use the new template by May 1, 2005 unless prohibited by hosting agency.  Accountability remains an issue.

Decision:  Charter was approved.  

                  Kim will send out letter that will include expectations and implementation dates.

                  Accountability will be a subject at the Coordinators Meeting.

                  Jay will work with Dan on obstacles and “pinch points’ for Host Server implementation.

                  NPSG Liaison to the Web Group will be Rick.

                  Jay will update NPSG at the January Meeting.  (2004-32)

 

NPSG Framework – Gerry:  (Exhibit D)

 

Objectives:

Deal with comments that were received – Find a way to address in Framework or capture in next phase.

 

In exploring the possibility of a User Assessment task from the previous meeting additional requirements were discovered that made the option unattainable.

 

·     Goal 1 – User Assessment

Guidance is needed to determine the best way to solicit comments from users.

Other groups may also be looking at surveys (e.g. FENWT)

Advantage to doing one large survey versus same groups having to complete several surveys

        Survey costs could be reduced through partnerships

NPSG could develop the survey and PowerPoint presentations and present them to each GACC

Social Science Research Meeting in Tucson in January could provide a possible in brief opportunity

Decision:   Identify advisor for Goal (possibilities including: NCRS or Don MacGregor).

Invite Advisor to the January meeting to develop a course of action that the group can accomplish.  (2004-33)

 

  • Goal 2 – Standardized Products

Decision:  See Goal 1.

Invite Kim Kelly from NWCC to discuss findings from work with the Predictive Services unit at NWCC and at the facilitated GIS Session at the Predictive Service Meeting scheduled for the first week of November in Portland.  (2004-34)

 

  • Goal 3

Before this Goal can be discussed more information is needed about where we are at.  A questionnaire could be distributed to Meteorologists, Intelligence Coordinators and Center Managers.  Need to look at obstacles to accomplishing the current workload – “pinch points”.  Examples include:

Technology

Data

Staffing/Collateral Duties

Expertise (analytical skills)

Travel Budget

Priorities

Organization

Operating Plan for office

 

Key success and accomplishments should also be requested.  This response should be more open-ended:

RAWS data quality

New products developed

Products issued