-         National Predictive Service Group –

 

Predictive Services Program Framework

 

MISSION

Why              VISION

                     Long Term       VALUES                       

                                             Enduring        GOALS                                        

                                                                  What          OBJECTIVES

                                                                                    Targets                TASKS

                                                                                                               Who/What/When…

 

Predictive Services Mission

 

The Predictive Services Program supports the wildland fire community and others with information and decision support products.

 

Predictive Services Vision

 

To enhance proactive wildland fire management that emphasizes safety, cost containment, efficiency, and ecosystem health:

·                    We integrate climate, weather, fuels, fire danger, situational and resource status information.

·                    We successfully anticipate critical fire events.

·                    We partner with cooperating agencies, academia, research, and the private sector.

 

Predictive Services Program Values

 

·                    SAFETY – We promote the protection of the health and safety of employees and the lives, property, and natural resources of all people in the United States.

·                    COOPERATION – We define our business practices by listening to our cooperators.  We address our needs and the needs of others through collaboration.

·                    ADAPTIVE LEADERSHIP – We value initiative and flexibility in leadership throughout all levels of our organization.  We target our efforts toward the work that matters most.

·                    INNOVATION – We respond to changing needs locally and nationally.  We share information with each other and with our cooperators.  We seek out, introduce, and evaluate new practices; both our successes and failures contribute to our professional expertise.

·                    EMPOWERMENT – We support empowering individuals to achieve program goals.

·                    INTEGRITY – We promote informed and credible decisions.  We champion and strive to improve quality data, appropriate analysis, and well supported decision making.

·                    EFFICIENCY – We strive to use science-based and appropriate methods to accomplish our goals.  We support validation of our products and the use of standard practices to streamline operations. 

·                    PRIDE IN SERVICE – We take pride in our mission, our program, and the unique skills of each individual.

 

Predictive Services Program Goals

 

·        1 - Develop and implement a user assessment process so that user needs are understood and defined.

·        2 - Identify and implement standardized products and services that satisfy user needs.

·        3 - Determine organization, resource and programmatic requirements.

·        4 - Develop and implement performance standards for products and services.

·        5 - Enhance the interaction between the Predictive Services functions.

·        6 - Establish a method for communicating information between Predictive Services internally and externally.

·        7 - Improve the data infrastructure that supports and facilitates the integration of Predictive Services and the Wildland Fire program.

·        8 - Implement methods to assess and improve the products and services provided by Predictive Services.

 


 

Goal 1

 

Develop and implement a user assessment process so that user needs are understood and defined.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.                  Identify users.

 

2.                  Identify key decisions.

 

3.                  Identify decision support and data request needs.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Design a User Assessment Plan.

 

2.         Analyze findings from the User Needs Assessment.

 

 

DELIVERABLES

 

            1.         User Assessment Plan that includes:

 

a)      List of users in user categories.

 

b)      Key decisions ranked by users according by importance.

 

c)      Prioritized list of information needs including acceptable standards.

 

d)      Implementation strategy.

 

 

ACTIONS - TASKS


Goal 2

 

Identify and implement standardized products and services that satisfy user needs.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.                  Assess current product and service capability of Predictive Services.

 

2.                  Conceptualize products or services that will satisfy the needs of users

Nationwide.

 

3.                  Identify and define the format and content of the products or services.

 

4.                  Identify and define the overall methodology used to produce the products

or services.

 

5.                  Involve users in the development of new or refined products and services.

 

6.                  Rollout new or refined products and services.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Institute a Product Development and Evaluation Team composed of representatives from all branches of Predictive Service as well as local, regional and national users (Obj. 1-5).

 

2.         Develop a process to rollout new or refined products and services (Obj. 6).

 

DELIVERABLES

 

1.                  A list current products, services and terminology.

 

2.                  A matrix of user needs to current product and services.

 

3.                  A list of products or services that are needed, and can be modified and produced within technological and scientific constraints.

 

4.                  Policies or guidelines on the format, content and the methodology of production of the product or service.

 

5.                  A rollout plan that includes product examples, predictive services terminology, timelines, training requirements, marketing, actions, responsible individuals, etc.

 

6.                  Deliver effective products and services.

 

7.                  A criteria for incorporation into “new product development” activities that advance active collaboration and partnerships (see Goal 5).

 

ACTION – TASKS


Goal 3

 

Determine organization, resource and programmatic requirements.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.                  Identify organizational requirements.

 

2.                  Identify personnel requirements.

 

3.                  Identify infrastructure requirements.

 

4.                  Identify programmatic requirements.

 

STRATEGIES

 

                        1.         Design a Program Management Plan.

 

                        2.         Develop a template for an Annual Operating Plan.

 

                        3.         Analyze staffing needs.

 

                        4.         Analyze information technology (IT) needs.

 

5.         Develop a training plan for Predictive Services.

 

DELIVERABLES

 

1.         Organizational diagram, including lines of authority for flow of policy and directives.

 

2.         A blueprint of authority and processes for drafting policy and establishing business practices.

 

                        3.         An Annual Operating Plan template.

a. Identify a routine for scheduling recurring tasks such as briefings,

    conference calls, meetings, workshops, training and product

    dissemination.

b. Identify a standard process for scheduling meetings, workshops,

    training, etc.

c. Identify a standard schedule for product dissemination.

 

                        4.         List of cooperative agreements and partnerships (e.g. research, academia).

 

                        5.         List of funding sources and levels.

 

                        6.         Workload analysis.


Goal 3 (Cont’d)

 

 

7.         Training and education plan by position.

 

                        8.         List of information technology needs.

 

ACTION – TASKS

 

 


Goal 4

 

Develop and implement performance standards for products and services.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.         Define what needs to be measured (objectively) or considered (subjectively).

 

2.         Develop success thresholds that are operationally relevant and

            Scientifically sound.

 

3.         Identify the methods with which success will be determined.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.                  Using an ad hoc committee/working group(s):

 

a)      Determine/define which parameters need to be measured or considered based on user needs

 

b)      Determine operationally relevant thresholds/breakpoints/criteria for each parameter to be measured or considered.

 

c)      Determine the best methods for gauging success within scientifically/professionally accepted standards.

           

DELIVERABLES

 

            1.         List of parameters to be measured or considered.

 

            2.         List of scientifically-determined, operationally relevant

thresholds/breakpoints/criteria.

 

3.         List of “best methods” that are acceptable within scientifically/professionally accepted standards.


Goal 5

 

Enhance the interaction between the Predictive Services functions.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.                  Establish expectations and targets for the Predictive Services Units that facilitate integrated (cross discipline) products.

 

2.                  Understand the importance, differences and synergies between the specialized disciplines within Predictive Services.

 

3.                  Identify and pursue opportunities for improved program vision, understanding and cohesiveness.

 

4.                  Improve communications and interaction between the different specialized disciplines within Predictive Services.

 

5.                  Improve the skills set of Predictive Services personnel through cross discipline training.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Require a collaborative organizational learning approach to planning, problem solving and new product development.

 

2.         Implement joint projects and coordination efforts between the different specialized disciplines that demonstrate shared values, common goals and equal partnerships.

 

3.         Provide opportunities for promoting program interaction through personnel details or the exchange of personnel.

 

4.         A strategy to incorporate team building exercises, effective communication, consensus building and skills advancement.

 

5.         Develop and deploy products that are collaborative and integrated from the start.

 

7.         Identify intra-office opportunities for shared duties and overlapping of roles.

 

 


Goal 5 (Cont’d)

 

 

DELIVERABLES

 

1.         A list of objectives and expected outcomes for joint projects and meetings.

 

2.                  Conduct joint training and advance education events and opportunities that facilitate team building, effective communication, consensus building and develop complimentary skills.

 

3.                  Conduct joint meetings and workshops that focus on collaborative activities and facilitate an understanding of the roles, needs, concerns and issues of specialized disciplines.

 

 

ACTIONS - TASKS


Goal 6

 

Establish a method for communicating information between Predictive Services internally and externally.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

            1.         Identify a communication program structure for Predictive Services.

 

2.         Identify publication methods and specific publications necessary for        communicating internally and externally.

 

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Develop a communications plan for Predictive Services.

 

2.         Assess current information publication methods, specific publications and a current schedule or routine for publishing them.

 

3.         Establish standard processes and schedules for routine or recurring tasks.  

 

 

DELIVERABLES

 

1.         A stand alone communication plan that defines how Predictive Services will distribute and gather accurate and credible information to and from all audiences, both internal and external, in a timely manner and in understandable language.

 

2.         A list of standard publication methods.

 

 

 

ACTIONS - TASKS

 


Goal 7

 

Improve the data infrastructure that supports and facilitates the integration of Predictive Services and the Wildland Fire program.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.         Collect and maintain accurate data on a national interagency basis for fire situation, fire occurrence, current and historical weather, vegetative fuels information and fire management resources.

 

2.         Utilize data formatting standards that facilitate the exchange and integration of data.

 

3.         Support actions that facilitate user access to data.

 

4.         Establish and implement data quality standards and user performance measures to improve and maintain the quality of data.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Promote the concept of “one-stop shopping” into the development and implementation of a universal data acquisition and retrieval system for weather, fuels, fire occurrence and resource data.

 

2.         Support the creation and/or adoption of data formatting standards that comply with NWCG guidelines.

 

3.         Evaluate weather station needs and define a weather station network that identifies key stations for the Predictive Service program. 

 

4.         Support management and oversight of RAWS maintenance standards and requirements.

 

5.         Identify key responsibilities and training needs for individuals entering and managing weather, fuels, fire occurrence and resource data.

 

DELIVERABLES

 

1.         Publish the current list of data standards and evaluation of compliance to NWCG guidelines for weather, fuels, fire occurrence and resource data.

 

2.         A published list of common elements of a weather station network analysis.

 

3.         A published list of responsibilities and training needs for individuals entering or managing weather, fuels, fire occurrence and resource data.

 

ACTIONS – TASKS

 

Goal 8

 

Implement methods to assess and improve the products and services provided by Predictive Services.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.         Develop business practices to monitor and examine Predictive Service products and services.

 

2.         Establish validation procedures to demonstrate the success of Predictive Service products and services.

 

3.         Conduct verification procedures to ensure accuracy of Predictive Service products.

 

4.         Evaluate Predictive Service products based upon their effectiveness in satisfying user needs.

 

STRATEGIES

 

1.         Develop verification procedures.

 

2.         Develop the methods to conduct evaluation.

 

3.         Develop validation procedures.

 

4.         Utilize performance standards in the evaluation, verification, and validation of products.

 

5.         Develop methodologies and or procedures to quality control products.

 

6.                  Develop a response system to address areas needing improvement.

 

7.                  Implement a “learning organization” approach to Predictive Services.

 

8.         Adopt “adaptive management practices”.

 

DELIVERABLES

           

1.         Defined validation, verification and evaluation procedures.

 

2.         Published performance results.

 

 


Goal 8 (cont.)

 

 

ACTIONS – TASKS

 

A monitoring or assessment should be performed in order to ensure that Predictive Services is delivering products that customers need, are accurate within “acceptable” parameters, and are based upon accepted scientific practices and principles.