- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG)
-
Meeting Notes
Location:
Members Present:
Members Absent:
Guests:
Notetaker:
Lani Williams
Meeting Agenda Topics:
1.
Introductions & Meeting Logistics Gerry Day
2.
Review and approve
3.
Review and revise
agenda
4.
Project updates Tom
Wordell
a) Cheetah, version 2 (Beta)
b) Estimate daily maps of departure from norm (Haaiganoush
Priesler)
5.
Update on National
Predictive Services Framework Gerry Day
6.
Firestorm 2003
7.
CDF BI Project Ron
Hamilton CA-OSC
8.
Discussion with
visitors of lessons learned related to Predictive Services Gerry Day
9.
Updates and reports
a) NWS
Fire Weather Program report Rusty Billingsley
b) Intelligence Coordinators
report Gwenan Poirier
c) Fire Weather Program
report Rick Ochoa
d) Center Managers report Kim
Christensen/Gerry Day
10. Standardized products Tom Wordell and Gerry Day
a) Criteria to assess needs
b) Process to
establish standardized products
c) Criteria to
evaluate products or product components
11.
Standardized weekly and monthly fire weather/fire danger outlooks Rick Ochoa
12.
Bin Items
a) Future meeting preparations
Bill Plough
b) FCAMMS Rick Ochoa
c) Budget (Funding mechanisms, link to
proposal)
d) National Assessment Workshop
e) Group Funding criteria (Proposal
Criteria)
f) Lessons Learned from the 2003 Season,
Items 3 and 4
11.
Closeout
Exhibits
A. Pending Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
B. Completed Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
C. Issue Paper, RAWS Data Quality Oversight 1 pg
D.
Firestorm 2003
E. CDF-BI Project, Ron Hamilton 2 pgs
F. GACC Intell Workload and Staffing Questionnaire 3 pgs
G. SIT Reporting Requirements and Recommended Mob Guide Changes 2 pgs
H. Intelligence Working Group Operating Plan 3 pgs
I. Intelligence Working Group Task Groups for 2003-2004 1 pg
J. NPSG Presentation to Center Managers, Gerry Day 4 pgs
K. AWIPS Project Charter 12 pgs
Tuesday
Agenda Item: Review
and approve
Task 2 Topic Request Form:
The agreed upon process to build the meeting agenda is not working
properly. Everyone was reminded to use
the form and to forward a copy of the completed form to everyone in the group.
Task 4 NPSG link on the NICC Webpage: It was brought to the attention of the group
that the webpage contained an incomplete list of the group members, with
contact numbers. It was also noted that
the posted Group Charter is an unsigned version. Both issues will be corrected.
Funding
Priorities and Decisions: Group funding
decisions and priorities, including end of the year available funding were
discussed.
Will be
revisited as a Bin Item.
Lessons
Learned Predictive Services 2003 Season, Items 3 and 4: These
items will be revisited as a Bin Item.
Pending
Actions Table:
2003-1 and 2003-3 Drafts are completed
Decision: Drafts needs to be turned over to the Task
Group to incorporate into framework document.
2003-6
This list of projects is a dynamic document; while more information concerning
the proposals is needed the process for prioritization is still evolving.
Decision: Revisit this list following discussion on the
Project Proposal Bin Item, perhaps at the
2003-7
An issue paper addressing RAWS data quality oversight was presented to the
Meteorologists Group at the Whitefish meeting.
(Exhibit C). No comments were
received. (This issue was revisited on
Wednesday).
Additional information is needed,
including
·
Current status of the
system
·
Data reliability
·
Strengths/weakness of
the system
·
Minimum standards
·
Expectations in terms
of timelines
Decision: Rick and Gerry will develop an issue paper to
be presented to the Fire Directors then out to the Coordination Groups for
implementation.
2004-5
For projects the NPSG denies funding, a letter of support for the project,
stating its value and usefulness may be of assistance as projects seek
alternate funding sources.
Decision: Letters of support will be written on a case
by case basis.
2004-7
The use of teleconferencing the Spring 2004 Seasonal Assessment Workshop was
discussed. It was determined that while
there may be interest, the needs of the audience may best be served by
distributing a written summary with associated PowerPoint presentations.
Decision: Distribute summary and PowerPoint
presentations.
2004-8
Task Force selected:
Ed Delgado EB
Tom Rolinski SO
Mike Fitzpatrick NW
Bill Fletcher NICC
Larry VanBussum NWS
2004-10
There are still some issues concerning the standardization of the Predictive
Services Webpage. Currently the task
force is soliciting comments on webpage design.
The standardization includes a common banner and navigation bar, the
interior of the page will be at the discretion of the GACC. However all products will have the same
name. It is still unclear as to what
degree all GACC Predictive Services WebPages will be the same. Some GACCs are unable to format their WebPages
due to agency constraints. To overcome this,
NIFC has agreed to host the websites.
There was some concern that many of the customers are not being included
in design process. This would include
IMT members and local dispatch centers.
Decision: Gerry will contact Jay suggesting that the
review be opened to larger audience.
This solicitation would go out through Kim to the Fire Managers,
Incident Team members and field dispatchers.
A statement of the objective and explanation of why the project is being
undertaken will be included.
(Note:
Completed
Wednesday
Project Updates:
Cheetah,
Version 2 (Beta) The Cheetah program
allows GACCs to analyze fire occurrence and correlate it to resource
needs. The original version was of a
simple structure and did not offer the capability to manipulate the data. Version 2 will allow GACCs more
flexibility. Fire occurrence data will
be supplied through FAMWeb. Each GACC
will be required to load and validate their own data base. They will then have the flexibility to save
subsets of their data. Once the data has
been validated the GACC will have the ability to run reports to determine
resource needs.
·
This version is ready
for beta testing to a select number of people.
·
There will be
Hand-off training when the program is ready for release.
·
Goal is to be ready
for field use by
Firestorm 2003
·
The major factor was
the source of a relative large number of ignitions within a relatively short
period of time.
·
Fire intensity and
spread were a combination of both long and short term weather, fuel conditions
and drought.
·
Many of the previous
record ERCs were set in 1999, 2001 and 2002.
This tells us that the fuel conditions were mainly the effects of
generally dry, mild weather conditions over the past five years.
·
The worsening of fuel
conditions has been an ongoing process.
·
Much has been written
and talked about regarding tree mortality.
One of the contributing factors for much of this Firestorm was brush
mortality.
·
Another factor in 2003
that was not prevalent in the previous four years was an abundance of dead
light fuels, caused by a wet spring.
CDF BI Project: (Exhibit E)
CDF is
faced with the responsibility of an Executive Order that mandates staffing with
additional resources when Severe Fire Danger conditions exists. In 2002 Severe Fire Danger was defined as
temperatures at or above 100 degrees and relative humidity at or below 20 percent
at Riverside OR LAL of 6. In 2003 the
Severe Fire Danger was redefined as being when the BI for the following day is
expected to be at or above the 97th percentile. Once the BI has been calculated this
information is emailed to counties and posted to the web to assist managers in
their staffing decisions.
·
Ron Hamilton shared
examples of some of the products that are supplied by South Ops through their
Predictive Services Webpage.
Discussion with visitors of lessons learned related to
Predictive Services:
Gerry
presented the Predictive Services PowerPoint presentation that was presented to
the Center Managers at the December meeting in Whitefish. The guests were asked
what they would like to see from Predictive Services. It was mentioned that the scope and amount of
information is increasing at such a fast pace that it is often difficult to
keep up with. Other points included:
·
FBAN-Net is
underutilized
·
GACC Predictive
Services webpages are constantly changing.
·
SoOps Webpage is very
useful
·
WIMS and KCFAST should
be more available and more user friendly.
The need for the site to be password protected was also questioned.
·
Would like to see one
stop shopping.
·
Need for centrally
located site for live fuel moisture data, historical
·
Point and click place
for fire history data to be spatially displayed, (>100 ac polygon)
·
Relative Greeness
needs to be available at a smaller scale, (this is available at the USGS
website http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/IVM/viewer,htm)
·
Need server with layer
data for FARSITE, (coming with LandFire).
·
Need a place to
retrieve current NFDRS indices, regardless of where you are
·
Need NWS contact phone
numbers
The need
for FBANs at the GACC level was discussed.
One possibility to meet the need would be a nationally funded team that
rotates through the GACCs during the season.
It was also pointed out that at the GACC level there may be other
alternatives. GACCs need to look at the
products that are needed to help determine the credentials or skills necessary
to accomplish that task. This may not
necessarily be an FBAN.
Another
need that surfaced during the California Firestorm was the need for accurate
maps in a timely fashion. This issue may
be mitigated by the availability of military assets and Northern Commands interest
in assisting the wildland fire community.
Updates and Reports:
Rusty Billingsley, National
Weather Service Fire Program Report:
Gwenan Poirer, Intelligence
Coordinator Report:
Decision: The
ownership/protection issue needs to be decided among the Fire Directors and
direction provided back to the field, possibly included in the Mob Guide. (2004-11)
To assist
in reporting, an additional column will be added to the report that will date
stamp when changes and approval has occurred for NICC. An additional user group may also be added to
accommodate Public Affairs.
Rick Ochoa, Fire Weather Program Report:
·
Rick and Rusty are
jointly tasked to develop GACC Product Standards, due by
Thursday
Updates and Reports (cont):
Kim Christensen and Gerry Day,
Center Managers Report:
·
Gerry shared the NPSG
PowerPoint presented at the National Coordinators Meeting. (Exhibit J)
AWIPS Project Charter was handed
out. (Exhibit K)
Preparedness Level Project (Gerry
Day):
·
Phase 1 Build
Business Model using workload and capability factors. The Model is built and the report is being
written.
·
Additional funding is
needed either through NWCG or Joint Fire Sciences for Phase 2
·
Decision: Add to Agenda for April Meeting.
Haiganoush Preisler (Tom Wordell):
·
Daily maps are
developed using statistical departure from norm. The applicability to Predictive Services is
currently unclear. There may be a use
for this information initially through the budget process.
·
Decision: Have her connect with Krista with the thought
of using this information on the budget/fiscal side. (2004-12)
Standardized Products (Rick Ochoa):
Decision:
Rick will work on developing a Survey and Outreach Plan for review by
the NPSG. (2004-13)
Timeline: Survey
and Outreach Plan due
Conference Call
Edits returned
Completed by
Begin process at NSAW the following week
Rusty will track the FSL and NOAA Workshops
concerning User needs and project development, as well as researching into
policy related to new product development within these organizations. Gwenan will talk to Jay and have him give a
report concerning the Webpage Standardization.
The GACC webpages will be reviewed.
SA Tom NR Rick
EA Gwenan SO Bill
RM Gwenan NO Bill
SW Rusty NW Gerry
EB
WB Rusty NICC Rick
What to look for:
Product Questions:
Predictive Services Conference, Topic for
next meeting.
Bin Items:
FCAMMS:
Decision: Gerry or Tom will have
someone give a FCAMMS/Bluesky Presentation at the
Decision: The Framework Document
needs to be presented to the Fire Directors.
Once it receives buyoff, then it can be used to clarify that Smoke
Management is not the role of NPSG.
Assessment Workshop Update:
Budget:
Proposal Criteria:
Decision:
Kim and Tom will develop the proposal information. (2004-14)
Lessons Learned from the 2003 Season,
Items 3 and 4:
Decision: Tom will talk to Joe Frost on GIS for Field
Managers possible course in development.
(2004-15)