- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG) -

 

Meeting Notes

 

 

Location:                    Northwest Coordination Center

Meeting Dates:          November 12 – 14, 2003

 

Members Present:

  • Gerry Day – NWCC – GACC Managers Representative
  • Bill Plough – CDF – State/NASF Representative
  • Neal Hitchcock – NIFC (for Alice Forbes) – NMAC Liaison (Advisor)
  • Tom Wordell – NICC – PS/Fire Analysts Representative
  • Gwenan Poirier – RMCC – Intelligence Coordinators Representative
  • Chip Collins – Grand Teton NP – Field Level Fire Managers Representative
  • Rick Ochoa – NICC – GACC Meteorologists Representative
  • Larry Van Bussum – NWS (for Rusty Billingsley) – National Weather Service Representative

 

Members Absent:

  • Alice Forbes
  • Kim Christensen – Acting NICC Manager – NICC Liaison (Advisor)
  • Rusty Billingsley

 

Guests:  Terry Marsha - NWCC – Fire Weather Meteorologist

 

Notetaker:  Bonnie Bradshaw

 

Meeting Agenda Topics:

 

             Pre-Meeting:  Formatting of Notes

 1.   Introductions & Meeting Logistics – Gerry Day

2.      Report on Action Items (pgs. 14 & 15 Reno Meeting Notes)

3.      Project Funding Proposals – Tom Wordell

a) FY 2003 Report

b) FY 2004 Proposal Process

4.      Potential Proposal by UC Berkeley Statistician Haiganoush Preisler – Tom Wordell

5.      2004 NPSG Funding and Project Status – Tom Wordell

6.      Lessons Learned – 2003 Season – Gerry Day

7.      Defining the Desired Future Condition of Predictive Services – Gerry Day

a) The “Big 3” Topics

·        National Strategy for Predictive Services

·        Standardized products

·        User assessment and communications

            9.   Bin Items

a) National Coordinators/Predictive Services Meeting in Whitefish (discuss presentation)

 b) 2004 meeting schedule

 c) Bin Item: Potential Proposal by Haiganoush Prisler           

          10.   Updates & Reports

                   a) Fire Weather Program Report  (AWIPS) – Rick Ochoa

       b) Intelligence Coordinators Report – Gwenan Poirier

       c) PS/Fire Analysts Report – Tom Wordell

       d) National Weather Service Report – Larry Van Bussum

       e) State/NASF Report – Bill Plough

          11.   Closeout

 

Exhibits

A.                 Organizational Leadership Diagram                                        1 pg

B.         Decision Flow Chart                                                              1 pg

C.        The BIG 3 Topics                                                                  1 pg

D.        FIRESCOPE Decision Process                                             2 pgs

E.         Agenda Topic Request Form                                                 1 pg

F.         Proposal / Briefing Template                                                  1 pg

G.        PS Questionnaire Response Summary                                    10 pgs

H.        Role of GACC FW Mets – RAWS Data                               1 pg

I.          NW Predicted 10-Day Large Fire Potential                           2 pgs

J.          OR/WA PS Area Map                                                          1 pg

K.        Dryness Level Data Sheet                                                      1 pg

L.         Group Vision & Mission Statement                                        1 pg

M.        CDF Strategic Plan                                                                29 pgs

N.        FY-03/04 NPSG Project Funding Report                              3 pgs

O.        2003 Nat’l. Season Assess. Wkshp. Report                          24 pgs

P.         Haiganoush’s data sheets                                                       10 pgs

Q.        BLM/FS NW Vision/Values (selected pg)                                1 pg

R.         Goal #5 sample                                                                     1 pg

S.         Logistics information for Palm Springs mtg.                             1 pg

T.         Palm Springs map & directions                                              3 pgs

U.        Fire Suppression Cost Prediction Model memo                      2 pgs

V.        Strategic Decision & Assessment Oversight Review               40 pgs

W.       Completed Action Item Tracking Table                                  1 pg

X.        Pending Action Item Tracking Table                                       2 pgs

Wednesday - November 12, 2003

 

An informal discussion was held prior to the beginning of the meeting regarding the format of the notes being taken for the meeting.  Notes should reflect the following:

           

             1.   Location

             2.   Meeting dates

 3.   Members present

 4.   Members absent

 5.   Guests

 6.   Note taker

 7.   Meeting agenda topics

 8.   Individual agenda items – Points of discussion and brainstorming ideas should be bulleted

       under each agenda item

 9.   Decision, Lead, and Target Completion Date listed under each agenda item if necessary

           10.   Pending Action Item Tracking Table – Lists pending Action Items

           11.   Completed Action Item Tracking Table – Lists completed Action Items for historical

 reference

 

Decision:  An original hard copy of the Notes will be kept by the Chair, with a copy of all handouts attached.  The Notes will be published to the website following approval.  The note taker will type up each day’s notes and have them ready for the group’s review the following morning.

 

 

Agenda Item:  Report on Action Items (pgs. 14 & 15 Reno Meeting Notes)

 

            Task 1 & 3 – Organizational Leadership Diagram and Decision Flow Chart

 

Neal Hitchcock distributed the Organizational Leadership Diagram (Exhibit A) and the Decision Flow Chart (Exhibit B) and explained that these are just drafts for the group’s review.   

  • Rick Ochoa stated that the role of the GACC Predictive Services personnel needs to be clearly defined because they do not always report to the Center Managers. 
  • Currently there are very few standards for Predictive Services, most are contained in the National Mobilization Guide (NMG).  Proposed – The BIG 3 Topics handout was distributed (Exhibit C).
  • Charts will evolve as the Predictive Services Framework is further developed. 

 

Refer Topic:  Charts and Big 3 Topics will be discussed on Thursday.

 

 

Task 2 – Formats on Decision Documents and Topic Abstracts

 

Bill Plough distributed an example of a Decision Process used in California by FIRESCOPE (Exhibit D).  The group will consider this as well as other decision processes as needed.  Gerry submitted an Agenda Topic Request Form (Exhibit E) for individuals to use when submitting agenda topics.  An outline of a “Proposal” or “Briefing Paper” (Exhibit F) was distributed.  These documents were reviewed and accepted by the group.

 

Decision:  The Agenda Topic Request Form and Proposal/Briefing Paper were approved for use.  Upon completion, this form should be forwarded to everyone in the group.

 

Task 4 – Develop and incorporate an NPSG link on the NICC Webpage

 

Tom Wordell showed the group the link to GACC Predictive Services Home Page from NICC webpage.   Heath Hockenberry is maintaining the web page.

 

Decision:  Rick Ochoa will replace Tom’s as the primary point of contact.

 

Task 5 – Consolidate Responses to Questionnaire

 

The Predictive Service Questionnaire Response Summary (Exhibit G) was referenced.  Tom Wordell consolidated the responses and sent the draft out to the group in June.  Gerry added the Big 3 Task column and cross referenced each line to a task.

 

Refer Topic:  This will be used in the Big 3 Topics discussion on Thursday.

 

Task 6 – Short Paragraph on Each Item in the Potential Funding Needs Table

 

Refer Topic:  This will be discussed in the Bin Item Session on Friday.

 

Task 7 – Develop an Issue Paper on Responsibilities of Assistant Fire Weather Manager at each GACC

 

Rick Ochoa distributed “Role of Geographic Area Fire Weather Meteorologist With Respect to RAWS Data Quality Oversight” (Exhibit H).   

  • Rick stated that RAWS management varies from area to area.
  • Tom’s recommendation is that Rick present this role description in a more concise manner at the December meeting in Whitefish.
  • Gerry stated that group should be setting standards for optimum quality.

 

Decision:  Rick Ochoa will present the responsibilities of the Assistant Fire Weather Manager with respect to RAWS Data on Quality Control at the December meeting in Whitefish, MT.

 

Task 8 – Rationale Terry Marsha developed for identifying PSA fire danger levels

 

Gerry Day handed out Terry Marsha’s Predicted 10-Day Large Fire Potential by Area (Exhibit I), WA/OR map (Exhibit J), and Dryness Levels Data Sheet (Exhibit K).    Terry explained the handouts.

  • Terry stated the probably of a “large” fire is a combination of ignitions and dryness for an area.
  • The product is generated daily.
  • Rick requested that an explanation of the product be put on the web.

 

Decision:  Gerry Day will investigate posting an explanation of this product on the Northwest Coordination Center’s web page.

 

Task 9 – Draft of vision and mission statement.

 

Rick distributed Group Vision and Mission Statement (Exhibit L).  Gerry distributed several pages related to mission, vision, values and goals statements from a Strategic Plan for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CDF) developed in 1994 (Exhibit M).  He suggested using the CDF plan as a template for development of a Program Framework for Predictive Services.

 

Refer Topic:  Vision and mission statements will be discussed on Thursday.

 

 

Agenda Item:  Project Funding Proposals

 

Tom Wordell distributed the FY 2003 NPSG Funding and Project Status Report and the 2004 NPSG Funding and Project Status Report (Exhibit N).

 

Projects funded in FY-2003:

 

            2003 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop

·        Tom distributed the Final Report (Exhibit O).  Report is available on the web at:

http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/conferences/fire2003/nsawproc.pdf

·        Participants felt that it was a successful workshop.

·        Many different people attended, i.e., Fuel Specialists, Predictive Services personnel.

·        Most beneficial was cross-walking between rooms allowing for good dialogue between the different groups.

·        Big drawback was not having an official note taker for the session.

·        Notes just came out just 2-3 weeks ago.

 

Cheetah Version 2 – Update (Phase 1)

·        Tom showed the Cheetah Program.

·        Two sides to the program: 1) analysis of fire occurrences and episodes, and 2) analysis of resource needs.

·        This program was designed to retrieve data quickly, but it is not a substitute for local area analysis using other programs such as PCHA, NFMAS, etc.

·        Version 1 of the program was based on FS regional boundaries and is limited in areas such as California and the Great Basin where geographic boundaries are different than FS regional boundaries.

·        Phase 1 of Version 2 has been initiated.

·        A standard has been developed to import state data.

·        Phase 1 will allow at Geographic Area personnel to import their own data.

·        Cheetah allows analysis of cross year data (e.g. November through March) – other programs are limited in this ability.

·        Completion date on Phase 1 is spring of 2004.

 

15-Day NFDRS Forecast Model

·        Tom discussed this web-based product being developed by NICC, RMRS and CEFA.

·        The web site shows standard ERC, actual ERC, and ERC anomalies.

·        Fire danger can be projected 15 days out with this model using GFS gridded weather data.

·        Tom thinks this is a worthwhile project that will help significantly with fire projections.

·        This website is updated once a day.

·        There needs to be a national model to project fire danger in a standardized format to show anomalies (departure from average conditions).

·        The National Weather Service is making grids at 5 kilometers.

·        This program should be used with other programs to get a general feel for the forecast.

·        Gerry asked the question, “How do we validate this product”?  Tom answered that funding from FY 2003 is being targeted exactly for that purpose.

·        Once the validation phase is completed, NPSG will need to decide the next step.

·        Neal suggested that this be constantly kept in front of the group for evaluation. 

 

Projects Proposed for FY-2004 Funding: 

 

Tom Wordell reviewed each project title, the estimated funding source, amounts required, and that status on each project.

·        Funding for FY 2004 is $50,000 provided from USFS funds.

·        Gerry suggested each GACC contribute $1,000 to fund the Intelligence Specialist Training.

·        Gerry asked why fire statistics project (to develop an integrated fire database for all federal agencies) was not on the list.  Tom Wordell gave the history and status on this project.  Basically, no one has taken it on as a business project and it has been put off for years.  A Fire Statistic Working Group was sanctioned by NWCG and formed under the IRM Working Team last fall.  They met, and came up with a report with recommendations presented to NWCG in October in Australia.  NWCG decided it wanted a more defined report with a suggested business lead and project manager, better budget estimates and timelines to be presented in January before they make any decision.  This subject needs to be added to the list.

 

Refer Topic:  Group will make decisions on these items on Thursday.

 

Bin Item:  Potential Proposal by Haiganoush Preisler, Statistician, UC Berkeley

 

Tom discussed Haiganoush Preisler’s paper.  She is taking data month by month provided to her from NICC Intell and then she projects the number of acres burned along with a confidence level.  Her projections are intended to predict fire season activity.  Tom will contact Haiganoush to find out what support she would require in order to provide monthly outlooks during the fire season.  (Tom did make contact and Haiganoush is willing to teach NICC Intell how to complete the analysis and projection she is doing.  Funding is not required.)

 

 

Thursday – November 13, 2003

 

Topic continuation:  Potential Proposal by Haiganoush Preisler, Statistician, UC Berkeley

 

Tom Wordell continued the discussion from yesterday regarding Haiganoush’s data sheets (Exhibit P).

  • Data is for all agencies, both Federal and state, using SIT Report.
  • The projection the group reviewed was for the month of June.
  • She plotted the line in May and validated it with SIT data from June.
  • She is currently working with 10 years of data.  Statistically, 20 years of data is preferred.
  • This was a single snapshot in May.

 

Tom spoke with Haiganoush, her comments include:

  • It is difficult to accurately project fire season activity by the end of May for each Geo. Area.
  • Projections do improve in the later months.
  • Projections are better for combined regions instead of individual Geo. Areas.
  • Suggestion:  Use the upper 95 percentile as an estimate of maximum amount to budget.

 

Tom suggested that a meeting be set up with Haiganoush and Krista Gebert, with the intent of using her knowledge to improve the effort Krista is undertaking to develop and improve a suppression cost prediction model for the DoI.  The group discussed this subject at length.  Product has to be evaluated as to the applicability to the dollar amount spent for developing this product.  Gerry used the chart below to talk about how this might be evaluated.

 

Good Forecast

Good Outcome

Good Forecast

Bad Outcome

Bad Forecast

Good Outcome

Bad Forecast

Bad Outcome

Better

           

FORECAST

 

Worse

Better                               Worse

   OUTCOME

 

  • Haiganoush provides an objective analysis/prediction that may have applicability to the budget exercise to project fire season suppression expenditures.
  • Gerry stated that Predictive Services expertise could be used to evaluate this product but that development support should focus on potential users.
  • Neal will talk with Bob Clark about this project.

 

Decision:  Neal Hitchcock and Tom Wordell will pursue this with Haiganoush Preisler and Krista Gebert to possibly combine their efforts into one product.

            Lead:  Neal Hitchcock and Tom Wordell

            Target Completion Date:  April 1st, 2004

 

Agenda Item:  2004 NPSG Funding and Project Status

 

Projects which submitted requests for NPSG funding were discussed.

 

            2004 National Seasonal Assessment Workshops (NSAW)

·        Neal stated that this is a good investment for the group.

·        Bill Plough stated that the States should investigate using Federal funds (Cooperative Forestry Assistance Act) for travel in order to attend this workshop.  He will discuss this further with Don Artley.

·        The Steering Group (Tom, Greg Garfin, and Tim Brown) generally decides attendees based upon nomination forms. 

·        Tom asked that some of this year’s unallocated funds be used to help people come to the workshop above the $10,000 already approved for this project.

·        Tom explained that this is an operational workshop with specific expertise needs that needs a specific audience.

·        Tom suggested that the GACC’s go to those who use the assessment information and have them make suggestions as to who should attend the workshop.

·        Neal stated that the project nature of the workshop should bring new people into the mix and thus fresh input.

·        Tom stated that bringing 30 people from both eastern GACCs to the last workshop has helped build relationships.

 

Decision:  Group approved funding $10,000 for the workshop with an additional $5,000 (if necessary to help with travel costs).  Steering Committee will determine split between the east and west session as needed.

 

Cheetah Version 2 - Update (Phase 2) - Fire Program Solutions

·        Neal stated that this is a solid investment for the group.

·        Phase 2 will develop a new Visual Basic interface on the new database structure that is being developed with NPSG funding for Phase 1.

·        This final expenditure will bring closure to the project.

·        Tom will initiate a task order for Phase 2 this winter.  Completion date for Phase 2 is expected to be April 2004.

 

Decision:  Group approved $20,000 for this project.

 

15 – Day NFDRS Forecast Model

·        Tom stated money funded in FY 2003 should carry them through FY 2004.

·        Emphasis will be on product validation.

·        Tom noted that it is a better fit for the NPSG to evaluate and fund projects in phases.

 

Decision:  Group denied funding for FY-2004.

 

 

 

 

Climate Variability Workshop

·        $8,000 is to support the workshop sponsor (Tim Brown, DRI) for time, facilities, travel, and per diem for climate forecasters and course development.

·        If the workshop is scheduled for the fall, it might be possible to use FY 2005 money.

·        Tom stated that another workshop in FY 2004 might be stretching schedule as two other workshops are already planned for this year.  It takes a lot of time and effort to put these workshops together.

·        Gerry asked what money is needed to get this going for FY 2005.

·        Tom suggested that this workshop could possibly be combined with the National Seasonal Assessment Workshop.  Bring people in a day early.  Development costs would only be needed for this year.

·        Gerry proposed that funding this year be used for development.

·        Rick suggested it happen at the Western NSAW meeting.

·        Gerry suggested there may be an opportunity to get each of the GACC Managers to support the workshop with $1,000 in FY 2005.

·        Recommendation:  Fund $3,000 for FY 2004 to develop material and venue.  Combine with Spring FY 2005 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop.

 

Decision:  Group approved $3,000 for development of this workshop.

 

Intelligence Specialist Training Development

·        NPSG supports this project, however the funding request for $10,000 is denied.  The suggestion was made to request funding from each GACC.

·        At the Center Managers meeting in Whitefish, Gerry will request that GACC Managers commit $1,000 each year for the next three years to course development.

·        Tom suggested asking each of the Center Managers to set aside several thousand each year for Predictive Services projects, this being one of them, instead of $1,000 here and $1,000 there.

·        Gerry will propose this item ($1,000) and then propose each GACC plan on $5,000 a year for other Predictive Services projects that may be pooled for shared projects.

 

Decision:  Group supports this project, but denied funding.  Gerry will make a proposal to the Center Managers at the Whitefish meeting to support this project by contributing $1,000 each of the next three years.  He will further propose that they plan to budget $5,000 each year for Predictive Services projects (the Intelligence Specialist training project included in this amount) so that money can be pooled.

            Lead:  Gerry Day

            Target Completion Date:  December 2003

 

Scripps CAP Seasonal Wildfire Forecast

 

Decision:  Group denied FY 2004 funding.  Tom Wordell will prepare a letter from the group to Tony Westerling (Scripps Institute), stating support for the project and suggesting that he submit a JFSP proposal under the current AP for tech transfer.

            Lead:  Tom Wordell

            Target Completion Date:  December 15th, 2003

(Note: Tom spoke with Tony in Orlando, FL the week following the NPSG meeting and relayed the group’s decision.  Heath Hockenberry will work with Tony to prepare a JFSP proposal.)

 

ROMAN

·        Gerry stated this product has great applicability across a broad range of wildland fire users and recommended NPSG forward a letter of support to the project leaders.

·        It was noted that users need to convey the need and benefits they derive from this application to Fire Managers/Directorate.

·        Rick will draft a letter stating the group’s support of this project.  Gerry stated that the letter should also stress the need for tech transfer to be better addressed and that NPSG is not the appropriate source for funding.  Letter should be sent to Randy Hart and Tim Mattewson.

 

Decision:  Group denied funding.  Rick will draft a letter stating the group’s support for the project, but deny funding because NPSG is not the appropriate source for funding.  The letter will further address the tech transfer issue.

Lead:  Rick Ochoa

            Target Completion Date:  January 9th, 2004

 

Recap of Final Approved Funding:

 

$10,000           National Seasonal Assessment Workshops

$  5,000           National Seasonal Assessment Workshops (if necessary for travel)

$20,000           Cheetah

$  3,000           Climate Variability Workshop

$38,000

 

·        Rick Ochoa asked about when unexpected money is available at the end of the fiscal year.  Where do we apply this money?  Neal suggested the 15 Day NFDRS Forecast Model or Scripps CAP Seasonal Wildfire Forecast.

·        Tom suggested that the Funding and Project Status be included in the presentation at the meeting at Whitefish.  Rick requested that Gerry present that this as National Predictive Services Group money.

·        Gerry suggested that project proposals are an issue that needs to be addressed at the next meeting.

·        NSAW Workshop – Gerry suggested having the GACC Center Managers and Operations Managers hear the final reports.  Neal suggested a possible teleconference call, and Rick will look into this.

·        Neal suggested that the balance of funding be held unallocated.  He further stated that the group is taking the right steps to nurture this program along.  Funding can vary from year to year. 

 

Decision:  Group approved final $38,000 figure as allocated funds and that remaining $12,000 be held unallocated.

 

Decision:  Gerry will present FY 2004 Funding and Project Status at the Whitefish meeting.

Lead:  Gerry Day

            Target Completion Date:  December 2003

 

Decision:  Rick will investigate possible teleconference or video taping to share final reports from the Spring 2004 Seasonal Assessment Workshops.  Another alternative is to schedule the Spring Coordinators Meeting the last week in March in Phoenix so they could attend the presentations on the last day of the workshop.

            Lead:  Rick Ochoa

            Target Completion Date:  February 20th, 2004

 

 

Agenda Item:  Lessons Learned – Predictive Services 2003 Season

 

Gerry led the group through a process to discover lessons learned during the 2003 wildland fire season with regards to Predictive Services.

 

1.  What are the notable successes?

·        Predictive Services worked well in several areas where we had used it

·        More structure to program

·        Increased consistency

·        Improved quality

·        National Assessment Workshop was a success